Welcome To Bad MMA bets, a tried and true MMA betting system!

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Leveraging hours of detailed fighter research, I deliver precise MMA betting picks to give you a competitive edge

The Model

The model takes into account a combination of stats, attributes and historical results and gives me a winner on a 0-4 scale.

Bank Roll Management

Our bankroll management system advocates betting 1-3% of your bankroll per unit, establishing a sustainable strategy that cushions against cold streaks and maintains a steady base unit size for consistent wagering.

Beating the odds

We might have a bad day, week, and maybe month but we have never seen our model not profit on a 3 month timeline and has always profited well in a 6 month period.

A little history

I used to sit and watch hours and hours of tape on fighters to gain edge on the betting markets. In an effort to save time I developed a betting model.

This was the birth of the underdog model.

The Model

The underdog model resulted in an overall 12% ROI with an average of +180 odds

I dug into the number and decided to take a peek at how the model would perform if included all the favorites as well and the results were pretty shocking.

The Model

Bank Roll Management

Percentage Betting:

You have a $10,000 bankroll and you place and win a 1u($100) bet at +200 odds. Your bankroll is now $10,200. Your next unit bet would be $102. Always sticking to your 1% baseline. The pros and cons are that if you go on a hot streak you’ll build a bankroll faster. It’s almost like compounding interest. It also mitigates the losses a bit. If you go on a cold streak, your unit size will shrink and it will slow the bleeding. This is the preferred strategy for this type of betting model. 2023 percentage betting

Flat Betting with goals:

You have a $10,000 bankroll. You set a gaol to $11,000. You keep betting the same unit size until you hit that goal. Once you’re up 10u you would increase your unit size to $110. You would also set a deficit limit of $9000. You would keep the $100 unit size unit size until you hit that deficit limit then lower your unit size to $90. Some people will revisit their unit size at a quarterly, half year, or annual rate. You would see where your bankroll is at these specific intervals and adjust unit size appropriately.

Flat unit betting:

You pick unit size and stick to it for a prolonged time. You have a $10,000. You don’t change your unit size. You’ll be at a specific units size until you’re ready to move on. Most people will do this in a year. CLV Closing Line Value is the price you paid versus what the line cost at closing. (Needs work) The past results on this model speak for themselves. I’ve third party tracked the underdog model for the past year and you’d be up 65% of your original Bankroll on a flat betting system.( Available at betmma.tips/badmma) Going back and running the numbers, the new model you would be up 104% of your original bankroll.

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