As with any model, it is only as good as the adjustments made to the data. Once we started including favorites in our betting strategy, our bankroll ROI increased, even though our gambling ROI decreased. Our goal is to maximize our bankroll ROI. I’ve added a few statistics that our model has highlighted. The current sample size includes over 2,000 bets from 2023-2024.
- Overall model hit rate: 61% with a 5% ROI
- Improved model hit rate: 66% with a 6.35% ROI
The difference may not seem substantial, but even this incremental increase makes a significant difference.
- Return in 2024 with the old model: +54.99 units
- Return in 2024 with the new model: +82.31 units